CHALLENGES TO DEMOCRACY

second round of weekly lectures at 5.15 p.m. on every Thursday

at Sahitya Academy Vyloppilly Hall, Thrissur

from 6th February 2008

Challenges to Democracy:

1st Lecture in the second round series on 11-2-2008  
By Dr. K.P. Fabian IFS (retd)

(Formerly ambassador to Italy and Qatar, High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Moscow, Kuwait, Vienna, Tehran and permanent representative to FAO; Eminent political analyst, Writer, presently President of Indo-Global Social Service Society, New Delhi)

Foreign policy options for Democratic India

Proposition No. 1:

What is foreign policy?  You are trying to maximize your national interest in your relations with external world, other governments, international organizations and all that. What is national interest? Not easy to define, but certainly include the interests of the nationals.  The national interests of India should include the interests of India. There are many Indias; i.e. incredible India for the tourists.   We speak of fastest growing economy, again correct and important.  Another aspect of India - 79% Indians live on less than two dollar a day.  39% are illiterate. 31% of rural house holds do not have access to safe drinking water.  Similarly 9% urban households.   81% of rural households are without proper toilets, 19% of urban householders also.  10% boys are not in school, 25% girls not in school.  49% children are underweight; 9% of children die before 5.  Is there any relation between such statistics and foreign policy options? Yes, there is.  If foreign policy is the pursuit of national interests in our relations with outside world and if national interest includes interests of the nationals, and then it follows that - this is our first preposition- Our Foreign Policy should assist us to alleviate or eventually eliminate poverty.  In Kerala we have our fellow citizens, from Orissa and other states coming to work here; for them Kerala is Gulf.  They are getting about Rs 200/250/- a day, which is big money for them.  Since we are used to such wages perhaps in Kerala we do not believe that 836 millions live on Rupees 20 or less. i.e. 77 % of us.  Now 70 million live on Rs. 9/- a day, 167 million live on Rs. 12/- or less a day.  200 million live on Rs. 15/- or less. 349 million on Rs. 20/- or less.  I have taken this data from Arjun Sen Gupta’s Commission Report, based on national sample survey.   These are hard facts and important too. So foreign policy of a democratic India, one of its primary purpose, is to alleviate or eliminate poverty. 

Proposition No. II:

Now, foreign relations are foreign relations - in the sense, when we try to do something with another government or another country, they are also trying to do something with us.  So, we do not have full autonomy.  There are many games which nations play.  These games can be complicated.  What is the nature of the world? Is it a unipolar world with U S?  Like in the solar system as the Sun around which other planets rotates? Or it is a multi polar world?  To my mind, it is not a unipolar world.  But, it is not yet multi polar world in the full sense of the term.  It is moving towards multi polarity.  The U S still dominates, however the American domination is coming down though, their domination still remains at the helm for many reasons.  First of all, no domination can last for ever.  All empires are mortal, they have to die.  There is couple of other reasons; one is the neo-cons who believed that America can use force and get anything done anywhere.  In the case of the neo-cons, they really con people and some how they are able to con the American administration.  Take Iraq for example, at present the US is spending two billion dollars a weak in Iraq.  To what benefit, not for the benefit of US and, not for the benefit of Iraqis who are getting killed.  It has been calculated that 2015 bullets are used to kill one insurgent.  So, because of folly in Iraq what happened? Oil prices have also gone up. When 9/11 happened, the price of oil was about 25 dollars a barrel.  Now it throws 100$.  Why did the oil price gone up?  It is not because India and China drinking more oil, it is only a part of the reason.  There is oil, but it means oil production has to go up. It also means more investment in the oil and gas sector.  You will not have more investment so long as the Middle East is unstable, politically.  Nobody is going to invest in Iraq; nobody is going to invest in Iran and not even in Saudi Arabia.  Because those who want to invest, want safety.  Because of these American policies or mispolicies, the American dominance has come down.  So our proposition no II is, the world is moving and moving rapidly from uni-polarity to multi-polarity.  It is an emerging multi-polar world in the submerging uni-polar world.

Preposition No. III:

India should have its rightful place in the world of emerging multi polarity and submerging unipolarity.  Now, what you mean by ‘India should have its rightful place’, it does not mean that India will be part of any coalition of the willing, attacking and occupying other countries,  At the same time, India will take part in a major way in U.N. Peace-keeping operations provided, of course, India supports the Security Council resolutions.  And ‘rightful place’ also means a permanent seat on the Security Council, because we deserve it.  At the same time we should also realize, we might or might not get a permanent seat, why?  Because the P5 would like India to have a higher profile in UN and take more active part in Security Council, they may say all that but they don’t mean it.  If the question is, whether they will support us for a permanent seat.  That doesn’t mean we should give up, we should strive but, we should also understand that they don’t really mean to help us.  Now, ‘rightful place’ also means economically strong India, not unduly integrated into world economy.  Because globalization is there, we cannot resist it, which is a very powerful tide.  At the same time, let me put it in this way, globalization is the only train that is going.  So we have to get into that train.  But we should not be getting into the train and sitting in the third class compartment. No, we should have a say, where the train is going, how it is going, so globalization should not be a tide, just moves us.  So we want globalization, but globalization to the extent feasible.  Foreign affairs are foreign affairs to the extent feasible of our choice that takes care of our interest now. There is a recession in the UN, very technically the economists will tell us that, unless there is a negative growth, in two consecutive quarters that is six months.  Then there is recession, we all know what happened in US, that there is a bureau which decided whether there is recession or not.  And they take the decision much later.  By the time they take decision, the recession might have come and gone, that is not the point, the point is American economy is slowing down, if you look at the growth. Now it has been said by some people that, after all American consumption i.e. private consumption, drives the economy which is slowing down, the private consumption.  India and china can come in and compensate for it now, am afraid this is not a correct way of thinking because the private consumption in the U.S is 9 Trillion dollars.  Private consumption in India and China combined is only 1.75 Trillion dollars.  Look at the difference, 9 Trillion and 1.75 trillion.  Even if we increase it by 10%, where do we get, it is not still even two trillion.  So America is still the locomotive, the engine, because of its consumption, because it is borrowing money.  It is the largest destination, so there is a problem, one has to be careful. They speak of china becoming the biggest economy by 2050 and some times they say India becoming the 2^nd largest by 2050.  Even now they say in P P P (Purchasing Power Parity) terms, India’s economy is quite big, it’s the fifth largest and all that it makes some sense but not really makes much sense.  Let’s understand this P P P business, if I want haircut in Delhi.  I can go to the club and get a haircut for Rs.30 and if I want a similar haircut in Chicago, may be I will have to pay 15 dollars.  But at the same time if India wants to buy an air craft or if India wants to import 6 million tons wheat, we have to pay the same money.  There, our purchasing power parity is no consequence.   Historically speaking, PPP became very prominent when the World Bank and International Development Agencies wanted to reduce the allotment to India and China by saying that you have got in PPP terms, you are so high.  Another thing is that, even when China becomes as they say the largest economy, per-capita income in China by 2050 will be the same as that of Portugal now. America’s population is 1/5 of China’s population now. If china’s per-capita income exceeds one –fifth of America’s per-capita income, then China’s GDP will be much higher than that of the US. But don’t forget the per-capita income is 1/5^th or about.  So the divide between rich and poor remains.  American economy is about 14 trillion. Let’s assume it is growing at 3% so that gives half a trillion growth in one Year.  Our GDP is about one trillion, so in 2 years the growth in American economy, at the rate of 3%, will be equal to India’s whole G.D.P.  When people speak, India is growing at 9%, it is very important, but we have just started, we are so small; when we look at the size of the economy, we have a long way to go.  In fact I would even say that America, Japan and all that their economy doesn’t have to grow at all.  What they require is better quality of GDP, not just GDP growth.

Preposition No. IV:

Let’s look at the 1, 2, 3 Agreement.  I don’t know how many trees have been felled because of 1 2 3 Agreement.  The number of Articles reported in the print media is nobody’s business.  All these paper would have cost us so many trees. Now let us ask a question.  We are a democracy, did we or did we not have an intelligent debate on this in our parliament, we didn’t have it. Did we, did we not, have an intelligent debate on this in the media, no. Those who oppose the agreement, they wrote; those who support the agreement, they also wrote; but there was no communication.  Each remained with their hard position, this is not a debate.  A debate is where we exchange views.  But if I stick to my position, if you stick to your position, then we are not talking to each other, but talking at each other.  It is not a dialogue, it is two monologues; one going the way, other going that way. That is not the way a civilized society should behave.  Now my question is, can we have a national consensus on foreign policy?  Americans say that all differences should cease at water’s edge.  I know it is not easy to have a consensus but I think we should try.  Now I tell you why it is important.  Let me give an example, we decided to go from Thrissur to Chennai by car; then we decided to go to Thiruvananthapuram ; then we change and decided to go Mumbai.  If we do that, we will reach neither Tvm, nor Chennai not Mumbai.  We will be permanently on the road.  It is very important to have some sort of national consensus on foreign policy matters.  Now, what are foreign policy matters? Take our relationship with the US, very important relationship.  But it cannot be a relationship of subordination.  Because India is too big to be a subordinate to another country.  Of course with America nobody can have a relationship of equality, but the just if diplomacy is to make it less and less unequal. So blind hatred of America does not make any sense.  Nor does blind approval of America, whatever America does let us approve.  Remember in the case of Iraq, there was a proposal to send troop to Iraq in 2003.  In fact the decision was almost taken to send the troops and Delhi, the British High Commissioner was told by somebody I don’t know who, on a Friday that the troops were going to take off on Monday.  Then of course the cabinet met on Saturday and decided NO and that was a wise decision. So it is important to see what we need

Preposition No. V:

Should citizens be involved in foreign policy matters?  Yes, they should be involved.  The decision belongs to the Government, but citizens should be involved, the reason is we are a democracy, and foreign policy is an important part of government functioning. So automatically it follows what, we the electorate, have a say.  I went to Iraq in 1996 or so, I was flying with the Archbishops of Baghdad; so he told me that, I don’t know you remember this, 2^nd of August of 1990 Saddam Hussein had decided to go for a picnic to Kuwait.  His forces crossed over into and occupied and 26^th of July the American Ambassador, her name is April Glosipi, was summoned by Saddam Hussein.  Saddam never summoned Ambassadors but she was summoned and there she told him, “Look my President wants good relations with Iraq”.  Intra-Arab relations, now Saddam Hussein mistakenly and very foolish mistake, he got the impression that America will let him get away with it, had he invaded Kuwait.  What the Arch bishop told me was that  this was on the 27^th  July he had tried desperately to get in touch with Saddam Hussein for just to tell him that Americans would not let him get away with it.  “If they had given you that signal, that was meant to fool you; don’t fall into that trap and in any case you have no business to attack other country, that was wrong and don’t do what was wrong, even if you get such a signal from the U.S.” It was not easy to get in touch with Saddam Hussein and hence he could not convey the message.  As I said, it is the government to take the decision, correct but it does not follow, that the government has a monopoly over wisdom or even information or let me go one step further, judgment.  There can be private individuals who have got better information as in this case and often better judgment too.  So good democratic government should listen to its citizens and then take what decision it should take.  But it should listen and listen respectfully.